Analysing the sensitivity behaviour of two hydrology models

Recently, the New Morris Method has been presented as an effective sensitivity analysis tool for mathematical models. The New Morris Method estimates the sensitivity of an output parameter to a given set of input parameters (first-order effects) and the extent these parameters interact with each other (second-order effects). This method requires the specification of two parameters (runs and resolution) that control the sampling of the output parameter to determine its sensitivity to various inputs. The criteria for these parameters have been set on the analysis of a well-behaved analytical function (see Cropp and Braddock, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 78:77–83, 2002), which may not be applicable to other physical models that describe complex processes. This paper will investigate the appropriateness of the criteria from (Cropp and Braddock, 2002) and hence the effectiveness of the New Morris Method to determine the sensitivity behaviour of two hydrologic models: the Soil Erosion and Deposition System and Griffith University Representation of Urban Hydrology. In the first case, this paper will separately analyse the sensitivity of an output parameter on a set of input parameters (first- and second-order effects) for each model and discuss the physical meaning of these sensitivities. This will be followed by an investigation into the sampling criteria by exploring the convergence of the sensitivity behaviour for each model as the sampling of the parameter space is increased. By comparing these trends to the convergence behaviour from Cropp and Braddock (2002), we will determine how well the New Morris Method estimates the sensitivity for each model and whether the sampling criteria are appropriate for these models. It will be shown that the New Morris Method can provide additional insight into the functioning of these models, and that, under a different metric, the sensitivity behaviour of these models does converge confirming the sampling criteria set by Cropp and Braddock.     

Environmental quality control and environmental games

Conclusion  In this paper we have considered a specific environmental game emphasizing both control-prevention efforts and the propensity to pollute by a firm which adopts a given pollution abatement technology. A random payoff game was constructed and solved under a risk neutral assumption and quadratic utilities for both the firm and the environmental controller. The game thus defined, provides a wide range of interpretations and potential approaches for selecting a control-inspection policies to prevent environmental risks. There are of course many facets to this problem, which could be considered and have not been considered in sufficient depth. For example, more complex control mechanisms and liabilities, the effects of insurance and risk sharing, the application of cooperative efforts and subvention of pollution abatement investments (through tax incentives and their like), etc. have not been considered [5,7]. These are topics for further research. The basic presumption of this paper is that it is very difficult to fully enforce pollution prevention by firms, as a result, some controls are needed to ensure that firms be controlled so that appropriate efforts are carried.     

Integrating disciplinary research into an interdisciplinary framework: A case study in sustainability research

The complexity of today’s research problems increasingly demands that scientists move beyond the confines of their own discipline. In this special issue, the basics of a transdisciplinary framework are established and problems analyzed in a specific discipline are successfully integrated in this transdisciplinary network. The intent has been to go beyond only statements about the importance of enabling early stage researchers to work across disciplinary boundaries, and to show that important discoveries are being made at the intersection of disciplines. Embedding various research projects in a more global framework can meet the demands of an interdisciplinary or transdisciplinary approach (especially for early stage researchers) and contribute significantly to sustainable research.     

A study on the orbit of air temperature movement

In this paper, we describe an air temperature movement by mapping its time series to the polar coordinates: the value of the time series is plotted on the radial coordinate and the time on the angular coordinate. In this way, both the yearly and daily air temperature movements from five different locations of China are used to demonstrate that, in an intuitionistic view, air temperature movement is neither random nor chaotic, but has its own orbit. We then propose an elliptic orbit model for the air temperature movement. Our proposed model provides quite good results when it is applied to the evaluation of yearly air temperature movements in eight locations in various parts of the world, and the evaluation of daily air temperature movements in five locations in Hunan Province of China on December 17, 2005. Results show that our approach provides a concise and helpful model for air temperature analysis.     

基于在线监测和SWMM模型的合流制排水体制系统化提升方案评估研究

合流制溢流污染严重威胁着下游受纳水体的水环境质量。为科学评估基于海绵城市理念的合流制排水体制系统化提升方案在解决老城区合流制溢流污染方面的效果,以嘉兴市老城区为研究对象,采用在线监测技术和SWMM数学模型相结合的方式,对嘉兴市老城区合流制排水体制系统化提升方案进行了全面评估。经在线监测评估发现,完成海绵城市改造后,嘉兴市老城区在研究期内的溢流频次减少为26次,小雨不会产生溢流;经SWMM模拟评估发现,完成海绵城市改造后,老城区合流制溢流口年溢流频次减少了132.2次。整体来看,基于海绵城市理念的合流制排水体制系统化提升方案突破了传统末端治理的局限,从雨污水产生、收集的全过程对合流制排水体制进行了系统化整治,对于提升全局水环境质量效果显著。     

夜间建筑施工噪声扰民监测方法探讨

以一家夜间施工工地为例 ,通过对现有夜间建筑施工噪声测量方法及国家和深圳经济特区有关噪声污染定义的分析 ,阐述了夜间施工工地噪声扰民监测方法     

Assessing land use impacts on flood processes in complex terrain by using GIS and modeling approach

A distributed hydrologic modeling and GIS approach is applied for the assessment of land use impact in the Steinsel sub-basin, Alzette, Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg. The assessment focuses on the runoff contributions from different land use classes and the potential impact of land use changes on runoff generation. The results show that the direct runoff from urban areas is dominant for a flood event compared with runoff from other land use areas in this catchment, and tends to increase for small floods and for the dry season floods, whereas the interflow from forested, pasture and agricultural field areas contributes to the recession flow. Significant variations in flood volume, peak discharge, time to the peak, etc., are found from the model simulation based on the three hypothetical land use change scenarios.     

Application of a checklist for quality assistance in environmental modelling to an energy model

Large, complex energy models present considerable challenges to develop and test. Uncertainty assessments of such models provide only partial guidance on the quality of the results. We have developed a model quality assistance checklist to aid in this purpose. The model checklist provides diagnostic output in the form of a set of pitfalls for the model application. The checklist is applied here to an energy model for the problem of assessing energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. Use of the checklist suggests that results on this issue are contingent on a number of assumptions that are highly value-laden. When these assumptions are held fixed, the model is deemed capable of producing moderately robust results of relevance to climate policy over the longer term. Checklist responses also indicate that a number of details critical to policy choices or outcomes on this issue are not captured in the model, and model results should therefore be supplemented with alternative analyses.     

厌氧填埋垃圾降解阶段指标体系的建立

以厌氧填埋场中垃圾的降解过程为依托点,从渗滤液的水质特征和填埋气的组成两个方面筛选出判断指标,最后建立判断填埋垃圾降解阶段的指标体系.结果表明,ρ(BOD5)/ρ(COD)可以反映出渗滤液的可生化性,从而间接反映出填埋垃圾所处的降解阶段,是判断填埋垃圾降解阶段的重要定量指标.     

环境水中西维因残留的检测方法

综述了酶传感器、酶联免疫传感器、液相色谱、荧光光谱和流动注射化学发光等方法在环境水西维因残留检测中的应用,对各种分析方法的工作原理作了简要介绍,并对其应用前景作了展望.